Active: November 15—25; Maximum: November 21, 09h55m UT (λ⊙ = 239.32°); ZHR = variable, usually ∼ 5, but may produce outbursts to ∼ 400+;
Radiant: α = 117°, δ = +1°; Radiant drift: see Table 6;
V∞ = 65 km/s; r = 2.4;
TFC: α = 115°, δ = +23° and α = 129°, δ = +20° (β > 20° N);
or α = 110°, δ = −27° and α = 98°, δ = +6° (β < 20° N).
The α–Monocerotids gave their most recent brief outburst in 1995 for Europe (the top EZHR, ∼ 420, lasted five minutes, the entire outburst 30 minutes). Recent modelling by Esko Lyytinen has indicated the main AMO trail will not cross the Earth’s orbit again until 2017 and 2020. However, the Earth will not be near those points in November, so nothing is likely to happen then. A weak return may occur in November 2019, ahead of the 2020 encounter, depending on how broad the trail may be. The next strong AMO outburst is unlikely before 2043.
Despite this, observers should monitor the AMO closely in every year possible, in case of unanticipated events. The brevity of all past outbursts means breaks under clear skies should be kept to a minimum near the predicted peak. The waxing gibbous Moon causes few problems for the maximum date this year, as the shower’s radiant is well on view from either hemisphere after about 23h local time, with moonset around 00h—01h (later further north). If correct, the peak timing would fall well for sites across North America.